Market Studies 21
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[edit] Sales Forecasting and Market Tracking Surveys
Sales forecasting and market tracking studies can take a number of forms and methodologies. Survey approaches to sales forecasting typically are applied when expert forecasting (experts estimate the market), judgmental bootstrapping (rule based decisions derived from experts that describe how to use available secondary market information), conjoint analysis (estimation of consumer intentions based on product attributes that are important in the decision), and intentions evaluations (consumer self reported intentions of future purchases) are to be made. These approaches use judgmental data.
Source: J. Scott Armstrong and Roderick Brodie, Forecasting for Marketing, in Graham J. Hooley and Michael K. Hussey (Eds.), Quantitative Methods in Marketing, Second Edition. London : International Thompson Business Press, 1999, pp. 92-119.
[edit] General Measures That Are Part Of Sales Forecasting and Market Tracking Surveys
[edit] Respondent Demographics
- Purchase role: consumer, purchaser, influencer
- Economic ability to purchase
- Awareness and knowledge of the product
- Interest in and desire to purchase
[edit] Economic Demand
- Economic purchase patterns: The nature of economic demand - cyclical (cars) –countercyclical (potatoes) - stable (extreme luxury cars)
- Current purchases rate
- Current repurchases rate
- Likelihood of purchasing substitute products – competitive products
[edit] Repurchase
- Cultural trends related to purchase
- Likelihood of purchase/repurchase
- Increase/decrease in general population awareness
- Responsiveness to incentives
[edit] Weighting
- Past accuracy - forecast vs. actual
- Sector or demographic weighting
[edit] For Industrial or B2B Products
- Purchase investment and return on sales
- Technology adoption process